Interest rates
RateView : Crisil's outlook on near-term rates
September 2025
Gusty August
One-month view
Our September view is based on our inflation estimates and benign oil prices, which offset the impact of geopolitical uncertainties and slowing global growth. Other factors that could drive the yield include the upcoming meeting of the United States Federal Open Market Committee (US FOMC), market liquidity (averaged ~Rs 2.84 lakh crore in August), the ongoing trade negotiations with the US, and foreign capital inflows (have been volatile in recent months).
Three-month view
There is a low likelihood of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cutting the repo rate in its October meeting as the central bank has announced a pause and indicated any further intervention would be data-dependent. Actual fiscal impact will be smaller than expected due to recent Goods and Services Tax (GST) rationalization. Other factors that could affect the yield include market liquidity, renegotiation of US tariffs and foreign portfolio investor (FPI) inflows.
Framework for the outlook
We provide the outlook on key benchmark rates for different debt classes-10-year government securities (G-secs), state development loans (SDLs) and corporate bonds-based on statistical models and inputs from our in-house experts. We also incorporate our views on policy expectations, macroeconomic outlook, key events (local and global) and market factors (liquidity and demand/ supply).
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