RateView

One-month view

Our April view takes into account factors such as US Treasury yields, crude oil prices, dollar movement, the impact of geopolitical developments and the risk sentiment of investors. Other factors that could drive the 10-year benchmark government security (G-sec) yield include policy moves by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), activities of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), inflation and liquidity dynamics.

Three-month view

The movement of the 10-year G-sec yield is expected to depend on RBI policy direction, government borrowings, supply of state development loans (SDLs), foreign portfolio investor (FPI) participation, movement of crude oil prices and the rupee, global risk sentiment and the FOMC’s decisions. Uncertainties around global trade and geopolitical developments would also influence the yield.

Framework for the outlook

We provide an outlook on key benchmark rates for multiple debt instruments—10-year G-secs, SDLs and corporate bonds—based on statistical models and inputs from our experts. We also incorporate our views on policy expectations, macroeconomic outlook, key local and global events, and market factors such as liquidity and demand/supply.