Cloud over kharif

Understanding the climate drivers
 

India is entering the 2026 kharif season under the influence of El Niño conditions, a climate phenomenon historically associated with weaker monsoon and heightened uncertainties regarding rainfall. With India typically receiving ~70-80% of its annual rainfall during the southwest monsoon, deviations in rainfall during this period will have significant implications for agricultural production. Consequently, El Niño remains one of the most closely monitored climate drivers for India's farm sector.

Typically, trade winds blowing from the South American coast in Peru towards Australia (in the Pacific Ocean) cause higher sea surface temperature in Australia. This warming leads to a cloud build-up around Australia, favouring monsoon in India.

During an El Niño event, however, the trade winds reverse, leading to a higher sea surface temperature around the South American coast. This results in lower rainfall in Australia and India and heavy showers in South America. Historically, El Niño has posed significant risks to India's agriculture and water security. Since 1950, seven of sixteen El Niño years resulted in below-normal monsoon and widespread drought, making it a closely monitored phenomenon by Indian meteorological authorities.


Against this backdrop, as of May 2026, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had forecast that the country will receive a below-normal rainfall, estimated at 90% of the long-period average (LPA), heightening concerns regarding the adequacy of rainfall during the kharif season. The outlook for rainfall distribution indicates a predominance of below normal rainfall conditions across most of the country, while the probabilities of normal to above-normal rainfall are largely restricted to the western Himalayan region (primarily Ladakh and parts of Jammu & Kashmir), parts of the Northeast and some isolated pockets of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Odisha.