Overview
Pivots, pillars and pace
In calendar 2023, the Indian economy weathered many a storm - both global and domestic - and emerged relatively strong.
The year 2024 will also pose significant challenges.
For one, global growth could finally be slowing. Then interest rates could take a turn but may remain elevated because of persisting inflation worries. Lastly, geopolitical tensions because of strife in two geographies are expected to simmer for a while.
For the Indian economy, this could translate to a moderate deceleration in fiscal 2025. But beyond that, the medium term, or between fiscals 2025 and 2031, domestic prospects look positive.
Not only is India expected to continue as the fastest-growing large economy, but also catapult itself to the 'upper middle-income' league after this decade ends.
The government is expected to sharpen focus on fiscal consolidation sooner than later, so the role of the private sector will be pivotal to the momentum in investments.
What is helpful here is rising capacity utilisation across major sectors. New investments under the Production-Linked Incentive scheme are also supporting capacity expansion in select sectors and improving domestic supply-chain integration.
The pillars to drive long-term growth are falling in place.
Capital - supported by stronger bank and corporate balance sheets - will continue to play a lead role and there is little worry on its availability at present.
Efficiency gains from ongoing reforms, a raft of regulatory facilitations, significant physical infrastructure creation and the national digitalisation drive support the pace of growth.
In the milieu, the pertinent questions before us are:
- How will a global slowdown in calendar 2024 impact India’s growth?
- Amid slowing exports, can India Inc deliver healthy revenue growth in fiscal 2025?
- What will it take for India to remain the fastest-growing large economy next fiscal and over the medium term?
- How will the role of manufacturing and services evolve over the medium term?
- What is the likely trajectory of private sector investments through the emergence of new thrust areas?
- How will geopolitical volatility influence commodity prices next fiscal?
To catch the discussions and hear from the best, please mark CRISIL’s flagship India Outlook Seminar, to be held on March 6, 2024, on your calendar.
Agenda
9:30 AM
Welcome note & context setting
Mr. Amish Mehta
Managing Director & CEO
CRISIL Ltd
9:40 AM
Keynote Address: “Inclusive and sustainable growth with focus on agriculture”
Dr. Ashok Gulati
Distinguished Professor
Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)
10:00 AM
Launch of CRISIL's India Outlook report
10:05 AM
Presentation on Global Economy
Dr. Paul Gruenwald
Global Chief Economist
S&P Global
10:30 AM
Presentation on 'Macroeconomic Outlook: India'
Ms. Dipti Deshpande
Principal Economist
CRISIL Ltd
10:45 AM
Panel Discussion: Growth and Resilience
Mr. Neelkanth Mishra
Chief Economist
Axis Bank
Head of Global Research Axis Capital and Chairman UIDAI
Dr. Ila Patnaik
Chief Economist
Aditya Birla Group
Mr. Harsh Gupta Madhusudan
Investor, Economist,
Author and Columnist
Moderated by
Mr. Dharmakirti Joshi
Chief Economist
CRISIL Ltd
11:45 PM
Tea Break
12:05 PM
Presentation: CRISIL
Mr. Miren Lodha
Director-Research
Market Intelligence &
Analytics
CRISIL Ltd
Mr. Ramesh Karunakaran
Director
CRISIL Ratings Ltd
12:30 PM
Panel Discussion: Building for Tomorrow: Decoding Corporate India’s capex story
Mr. Sujoy Ghosh
Vice President and Country Managing Director
First Solar
Mr. Vijayanand Samudrala
President
Amara Raja Advanced
Cell Technologies
Mr. Josh Foulger
President - Electronics
Zetwork
Mr. Gurpreet Chhatwal
Managing Director
CRISIL Ratings Ltd
Moderated by
Mr. Ashish Vora
President and Business Head
Market Intelligence & Analytics
CRISIL Ltd
1:30 PM
Closing remarks & Vote of thanks
Previous Events
Mar
16 2023
Rider in the storm: Tracing India's growth in a volatile world
Mar
10 2022
The recovery contours: Recovery, cost pressures and investments amid a waning pandemic
Mar
09 2021
Is the investment cycle rebound round the corner?
Aug
12 2019
Uphill trek
Mar
01 2018
The FouRs of Growth
Mar
09 2017
Crisil Intelligence
March 06, 2024Growth marathon
CRISIL's 8th India Outlook seminar: 'Pivots, pillars and pace'