India’s exports growth in a pandemic-dominated world appears to be inversely related to the rise in Covid-19 cases in its export destinations. Put in another way, exports are flowing back to economies that have checked the affliction.

That explains why, exports to certain economies are looking up, while overall exports per se are still declining, though at a slower pace. India’s exports as well as imports have consistently declined since March 2020, ever since the pandemic disrupted business activity and global trade as well as domestic demand.

But the pace of decline is slowing, especially for exports.  From a trough of -60.2% on-year in April it turned to -10.2% in July.