Recession fears, slack demand cull crude amid lower geopolitical tensions

Crude oil prices declined to $74.3 per barrel in September amid recession fears

Crude oil prices declined a sharp 8.1% on-month in September, settling at $74.3 per barrel (bbl) on average.

The decline was mainly due to subdued demand from major economies. Demand in China, a major consumer, grew sequentially but declined on-year. Moreover, geopolitical tensions, which had driven up the prices in July, saw a temporary easing.

As a result, consumers and businesses felt less pressured to make substantial purchases, which diminished oil demand. Between January and September, dated Brent averaged ~$82.7 per bbl, up a marginal 1% on-year.

That said, the recent flareup in the geopolitical tensions is limiting the decline and the prices are expected to stay in the $75-79 per bbl range in the fourth quarter of calendar 2024. Developments in the Israel-Iran conflict are a key monitorable.