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India’s goods exports contracted 7.4% on-year to $38.9 billion in March (vs 0.3% average growth in the three months ended February), partly due to a high base driven by frontloading of exports last year in anticipation of US traiff hikes.

Our April view takes into account factors such as US Treasury yields, crude oil prices, dollar movement, the impact of geopolitical developments and the risk sentiment of investors. Other factors that could drive the 10-year benchmark government security (G-sec) yield include policy moves by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), activities of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), inflation and liquidity dynamics.

Faced with an air quality crisis that culminated in being ranked as the world’s most polluted capital city by the IQAir 2025 World Air Quality Report, the Government of Delhi recently released the draft Delhi Electric Vehicle Policy 2026-2030.

The West Asia conflict led to a significant tightening of India’s financial conditions in March, as it triggered foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) outflows, a sharp fall in the rupee and firmed up bond yields. Domestic liquidity also tightened due to tax outflows. The Crisil Financial Conditions Index (FCI) fell outside the defined comfort band, dropping to -1.5 from 0 in February.

India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) series rose to 3.4% in March from 3.2% in February, driven by upticks in both food and fuel inflation. While food inflation rose on a low base, the uptick in fuel was driven by the increase in domestic cooking fuel prices.

Power demand in March rose to ~149 billion units (BUs), surpassing the 147 BUs recorded in the same month last year. Notably, this marks the highest March consumption since at least 2010.